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Drought Plagues China's Top Grain Base
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Drought Plagues China's Top Grain Base
by Li Ping
From Nation, page 9, The Economic Observer issue no. 333, September 17, 2007
Original article in Chinese:
http://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/jjgcb/2007/09/14/83189.html

Yushu County, 100 kilometers away from Changchun, the capital of Jilin province, enjoys a reputation as China's biggest granary-- a title that it has basked in since in 2004. That year it produced 2.3 billion kilograms and was named the "National Model County Grain Producer". Two years later, the output had risen by around a hundred million kilograms. But today, Yushu faces a drought the likes of which comes only once in a hundred years, and grain output has fallen steeply.

At noon on September 12, in the Chengfa village in Yushu County, Zhang Shucai loaded corn straws into a wheelbarrow. "It"s no use leaving them in the fields. We might as well bring them home to feed the cattle", he says.

Because the high price of corn last year, he leased almost two and a half acres of land solely for planting corn. "Last year, I only planted corn in less than a two acre field and harvested 10,000 kg. In the end I earned more than 8,000 yuan on that crop," says Zhang. "But this year I'll be happy to harvest just 1,000 kg. I can easily count the number of corn cobs."

This year"s output was only 10 percent of those of normal years. "If the output is less than 20 percent of the average output during previous years, we classify it as a 'no harvest' year," says Yang Shujiu, the top agronomist for Jilin province.

Meanwhile, officials of Yushu maintain that Chengfa's situation was not representative of all of Yushu.

Meteorological data shows that the drought has spread throughout Jilin province since the planting period at the end of April, and can be divided into three phases.


Sowing occurs in the first period, which ends in late June. One county reported to the provincial government that by June 27, 14,8270 acres of fields had yet to plant seeds. This stood at 30 percent of the total possible cultivatable land. 82,372 acres of fields that saw maturing corn still needed supplementary planting. And in one village, less than half of the seeds in more than 600 hectares survived.

In the second phase, from July 10 to August 10, rainfall in northern and western regions of Jilin province were only a few millimeters, or 10 percent the yearly average. "This is the crucial reproductive time for the corn and also when the drought was the most serious. A lower pollen survival rate causes corn ears to die," says Yang.

August 17 until now has been the third phase, a the time when corn accumulates dry-matter and conducts photosynthesis. Without water, the granules cannot become plump.

Now, in Yushu as elsewhere in Jilin province, the stalks are bare, the husks sunken, and the kernels withered.

The whole Northeast, stretching from eastern Inner Mongolia to Heilongjiang province, serves as the grain base for greater China, is suffering from the drought. Public data shows that 5.06 million acres of fields have been struck by drought in Liaoning province, accounting for 49 percent of the total provincial arable land. Almost 6.58 million acres of fields or 66.5 percent of all arable land in Jilin province has been hit. Worse still, more than 16.7 million acres fields in Heilongjiang have been affected.

Tarmers are powerless in the face of a natural catastrophe of such size. Zhai Qiang, director of Jilin's flood control and drought relief headquarters, says that the provincial government has invested 326 million yuan for relief and 190 thousand motor-pumped machines were working in anti-drought wells every day. But despite this, but effects have been negligible.

Farmers take out loans to buy seeds and fertilizers with the expectation of selling enough corn to pay back the loans and make a living off of the leftover income. For farmers like Zhang Shucai, the drought breaks this circle. The 1,000 kg of corn that he's harvested can be grinded into cornmeal that can feed his family, but how does he pay back his 5,000 yuan in loans and what will he do next year?


Song Dongbai calculates that farmers need 18 to 21 kg of seeds per acre. Each kilogram is 12 yuan, 40 kg of fertilizer is 140 yuan, 50 kg of topdressing is 100 yuan, its 150 yuan for planting, upkeep, and harvesting costs, and 50 yuan in taxes. Excluding labor costs and land leasing fees, each hectare costs the farmer around 7,500 yuan.

"I will be unable to pay back the loans this year. If the bank doesn"t loan money to me next year, I can't afford the seeds. But what can I do except farm crops? I am 57 years old, I can't go out looking for work, no one will hire me," says Yang.

"The reaction by the people has been calm since no one is actually starving. But during Spring Festival... that's the critical time. If people have to send kids to school or someone gets hospitalized, it's over," he adds.

Cao Changqing, department head of the price policy for the National Reform and Development Commission, has said that the last surge in prices rests on the autumn harvest.

On the morning of September 13, vice-director of the Ministry of Agriculture Yin Chengjie said that although the summer output was almost 150 billion kilograms higher than last year, the yearly output still rested on the autumn harvest. "Barring any large-scale natural disasters like an early frost, the outlook for the autumn was good."

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