Nov 27, 2012
Translated by Zhu Na

Next month, China's top leaders, including high-level policymakers from central government departments, the military and provincial-level governments, will discuss the general direction of economic policy for the coming year at a three-day conference that is held in Beijing at the end of every year.

This will be the first year that Xi Jinping, the recently appointed General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, will chair the Central Economic Work Conference. Other members of the CPC's Politburo Standing Committee will attend the conference, including Vice Premier Li Keqiang who will give a major speech at the meeting.

The Central Economic Work Conference is used as a forum to review economic developments over the preceeding 12 months and also to set the general policy direction and basic targets for the coming year.

"This year's work conference is a bit different and more complicated than usual as it will see the new leadership team reveal its economic direction for the first time. But personally I expect policy continuity and that they will stick with the earlier annual GDP growth rate target of 7.5 percent." Yuan Gangming (袁钢明), a researcher with Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University, told the International Finance News.

Yuan also noted that "the real GDP growth rate is likely to be higher than 7.5 percent next year, there's a good chance it will exceed 9 percent.”

A report released by Renmin University's Institute of Economics on Nov 24 forecast  that China's economy would grow by 9.3 percent in 2013, with CPI also rebounding to increase by 4.1 percent in the same year.

However, Sun Lijian (孙立坚), vice dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University, believes that GDP will grow by around 7.5 percent again next year, noting that predictions of growth exceeding 9 percent are perhaps too optimistic about external trends.

Sun also predicted that "Monetary policy will still remain prudent, with M2 growth hovering between 14 and 16 percent and fiscal policy will be relatively loose. There will be some tax reform aimed at reducing the tax burden placed on business and more investment in areas that affect the livelihood of the people such as education, health care and boosting employment."

Links and Sources
International Finance News: 习近平将主持中央经济工作会议 透露新经济方略