Highlights from the EO print edition, No. 601, Dec 31, 2012

In a special issue to mark the end of 2012, the EO devoted the pages of this week's issue to the question of what China will be like in 2020.

The issue is divided into three sections, China, The World and The Future.

The China section looks at everything from the price of housing in 2020 to budget transparency, from middle-income traps to the role of rural workers, from an aging society to the university entrance exam. Writers from the EO also peer into their crystal ball to look at what will be happening with highspeed rail, the salary of government officials, the "made in China" brand, online retailing, the internationalisation of Chinese brands and the RMB, the role of private enterprise and the Chinese insurance industry.

The World section has articles that guess at what kind of world China will be part of and what will be happening in the U.S., Asia and Europe.

The final section looks topics like the rise of new energy resources, environmental challenges, the business of space travel, world grain prices and much more.

The issue contains more articles than we can possibly translate and we urge those who can read Chinese to explore the online version of the special feature here.

Below we've provided three short abstracts of two of the articles in the issue and a collection of quotes that appeared on the final page of the paper

Predictions For Consumption in 2020
China, page 5
~ According to a report released by McKinsey & Company last month, consumption will replace investment as the most important driving force in China’s GDP growth by 2020.
~ Tao Dong (陶冬), chief economist at Credit Suisse (Asia) predicted that by 2020, China will overtake the U.S. as the largest consumer market in the world.
~ Ma Xiuhong (马秀红), deputy director of the Subcommittee of Foreign Affairs of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, said it’s estimated that in 2020, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods will reach $10 trillion - equivalent to the size of today’s Eurozone market.
~ According to the McKinsey & Company report, by 2020, Chinese consumers will have developed into mature consumers with higher demands in the quality of goods and services.
~ By 2020, 14-15 percent of retail sales will come from e-commerce.
~ There are still eight years to go until 2020. What China needs most while becoming a consumer society are laws, regulations and strict market management that are conducive to consumption. Another key is to ensure the rapid and stable growth of residents’ real income.
Original article: [Chinese]

What Private Enterprises Expect in 2020
China, page 19
~ Chen Xiangdong (陈向东), CEO of New Oriental Education & Technology Group, says that 2020 will be a better time for the private economy, and that private enterprises will occupy a much larger proportion of the national economy.
~ Bao Yunjun (保育钧), consultant from the Chinese Research Society for the Development of the Private Sector, has the same view. He predicts that in the next eight years, the total volume of investment in China will exceed 300 trillion yuan, most of which will be from private enterprises.
~ “Investment this year was 36 trillion yuan with an annual growth rate of 7 percent,” said Mr. Bao. “Next year it will reach 40 trillion yuan, and by 2020, 300 trillion yuan. The private economy will become the main body of investment. This year, private investment accounted for 26 percent of all investment. It will account for 70 to 80 percent in the future.”
~ But for Han Xiaohong (韩小红), founder of the private enterprise Ciming Checkup Group, her biggest expectation for the future is summed up in just one word: fairness. She believes that as long as fairness is guaranteed, the private economy will create a bright future.
~ The 18th  party congress gave Han great hope for this fairness. The report at the congress said, "Ensure that economic entities under all forms of ownership have equal access to factors of production in accordance with the law, compete on a level playing field and are protected by the law as equals.”
Original article: [Chinese]

A Collection of Quotes on 2020
Future, page 48

"By 2020, optimistically, China's economy will surpass that of the United States. But to speak cautiously, it will reach 90 percent of the overall U.S. economy's size."
- Yao Yang (姚洋), head of the National School of Development of Peking University and director of China Center for Economic Research.

"By 2020, China's newly rich consumers are expected to reach 280 million people, the purchasing power of whom will reach $3.1 trillion - accounting for 5 percent of total global consumption."
- The Boston Consulting Group

"Currently, China's middle-income group accounts for about 23 percent of the population. Driven by urbanization and other factors, every year [the group] will increase by 2 percentage points. By 2020, it will reach about 40 percent of the population, thus forming a middle income group with a population of up to 600 million."
- Chi Fulin (迟福林), head of China (Hainan) Institute for Reform and Development

"In the Ten-Year Plan of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, by the end of the 12th Five-Year (2011-2015) Plan, the annual trade volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange will reach 100 trillion yuan, of which the market value of shares will be about 35-40 trillion yuan. It will strive to become the world's second largest exchange. By 2020, we hope it can grow by 50 percent, with the market value shares reaching 70-80 trillion yuan."
- Zhang Yujun (张育军), assistant to the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission

"By 2020, the mileage of national railways in operation will reach more than 120,000 kilometers from over 100,000 kilometers currently - of which passenger lines and intercity railways will reach more than 16,000 kilometers."
- Ministry of Railways

"Hong Kong will be developed into a comprehensive RMB offshore center in 2020."
- Liao Qun (廖群), chief economic strategist of CITIC Bank International

"In 2020, the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity will be able to reach up to 100 million kilowatts."
- Wang Sicheng (王斯成), senior researcher at the Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

"In 2020, China will become the world's largest oil-importing country. The United States will replace Saudi Arabia as the largest oil-producing country in the world."
- The International Energy Agency

"By 2020, China will become the world's largest film market."
- Ernst & Young

"… attain the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. […] We should double the 2010 GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents."
- The report of the 18th Party Congress of the CPC

Original article: [Chinese]