By Sun Liping (孙立平), a professor of sociology at Tsinghua University
Issue 609, Mar 4, 2013
Observer, page 41
Translated by Chi Yi and Pang Lei
Original article: [Chinese]

We're at a historical turning point. The era of reform and opening up that has lasted for the past 30 odd years is over and a new era that will last for another 30 years is just beginning.

At moments like this it is especially important that we think about what is happening in a constructive and comprehensive way. When I say that the age of reform is finished, I don't mean that the tasks of reform have been completed. What I mean is that the concept of "reform" can no longer deal with the problems that it needs to solve.

This is not simply about reforms running into various obstacles, it's also related to the limitations of the concept itself.

Supporters of reform may feel uncomfortable when I argue that the era of reform is over. To be honest, I also feel uneasy about the idea, as I've also been a supporter of the reform movement.

No-one can deny the huge results that reform and opening up has achieved, especially the fact that through reform we have been able to build the foundations of a market economy.

Under the framework of this market economy, China has enjoyed rapid and enduring economic development and has gradually begun to engage with the broader world.

Despite all this, now it is time for change.

The Concept of Reform

From ancient times, the concept of reform usually refers to the policies that were introduced during the rule of a certain leader or government, for example Roosevelt's New Deal in the U.S.

But China's reforms don't appear to be the same, they've already gone on for almost 35 years, over two generations. Can we still refer to reform that lasts this long as reform?

Currently there is a split in the way that people see reform and it's related to the point I just made.

Everyone is talking about reform these days and it seems that a new common understanding of what reform means is taking shape. But in reality this common understanding is illusory.

Beyond the surface agreement lies a deep division. This split is especially obvious when it comes to the views of officials and those of civil society. These two groups have very different ideas of what reform really means.

Sometimes I think that the reform that officials hold dear to their hearts is closest to the original meaning of what reform is - to make changes to an important yet specific system but doing so while maintaining the stability of an underlying fundamental system.

So, when people accuse the government of not reforming, sometimes they must feel as if they've been falsely accused.

In their own eyes they think they have been reforming and they'll list the examples; reform of the ministries under the State Council, Hukou reform and social security reform.

The problem is that the broader society, or at the least a sizable portion of them, don't view this as reform.

When the idea of "reform" was first put forward in the 1970s, there was an implicit value that underlay it - efficiency. This has been the ultimate goal over all these years of reform and opening up.

But there is a problem with only valuing reform because it increases efficiency. Efficiency should only be one of many goals for a society and one that is best applied to economic affairs. When efficiency becomes the goal of a society as a whole, it destroys the value of other social goals.

Secondly, if we make efficiency the only goal of a society, reform is limited to the economic sphere, changes to the political system and the establishment of legal institutions become impossible.

Reform is only a means to an end, but in China it has been taken as the goal for so many years. It's because of this that non-economic reforms have been unable to progress and economic reforms have also become distorted.

From Reform to Building a Just and Fair Society

China needs to change more than at any time in its history.

The problems facing China cannot be solved if we approach the situation from within the bounds of the old discourse. Perhaps this is the right time for us to do away with the idea of "reform" and find a new phrase to frame our thoughts.

It's extremely important that we can find a new approach that is both constructive and can really solve our problems.

The term reform means many different things to different people.

I think "building a society that is just and fair" (建设一个公平正义的社会) can work as the basis of a new approach. "Building" is an extremely mild word with enormous potential and "just and fair" have become the crux of problems facing Chinese society today.

The economy loses its vitality without an environment of fair competition. Social conflicts erupt because people cannot find justice. Even moral corruption has a direct link to the lack of support for justice and fairness.

There is potential for a common consensus between the left and the right to build up around the principles of justice and fairness. People calling for change will take the moral high ground and the idea itself will drive the changes forward.

Impetus for Change

Claremont McKenna College political science professor Minxin Pei (裴敏欣) published an article recently in which he analyzed the problem from a useful angle. He believes the reform in China has stalled in the past 10 years but a quiet revolution has taken place at the same time.

From the perspective of those administrators at the top of the system, ordinary people are becoming increasingly more difficult to manage and the costs of "maintaining stability" are also increasing, leading them to feel that there is a crisis in the fundamental nature of governance.

Day by day, Elites at all levels of society are growing increasingly aware that the tensions in society have reached an unprecedented level.

Professor Pei noted three unique features of these recent changes; the emergence of independent figures of public moral authority, the collapse of the Party’s credibility among ordinary people and the costs of maintaining power are becoming exorbitant.

If we look at how the political "eco-system" in China has changed over the past ten years, one of the key features is the growth in social power (社会力量). There are now more than 538 million internet users in China according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). There are over 274 million accounts on Weibo, the Twitter-like social networking platform.

The emergence of social media like Weibo has changed the relationship between the people and the public affairs. The government can no longer hide important information from public view.

Changes are also taking place inside the government.

Aside from those people who are determined to protect their vested interests, there are also a lot individuals who realise that it's impossible for things to continue on the way that they've been going. Though obviously the way in which they voice their concerns is different from other groups.

I would like to emphasize the power of decency (文明的力量), we need to believe in the power of decency.

Prospects for the Future

I forecast that in the future that the number of social contradictions and conflicts will follow a U-curve. In the short-term, with the leadership team, social contradictions are likely to abate and there will be a reduction in the amount of social tensions.

However, the current structure that underlies the fundamental interest patterns will not be comprehensively altered.

After one or two years, under pressure from the economy and interest patterns, will this lead us back down the old road?

Vested interests will adopt a wait and see approach for a while but we're not sure what they'll do after that.

Given these factors, I predict that towards the middle or end of the next 5-year period, social contradictions and conflicts could once again increase in number and severity.

The crux of the problem is how to take the pressure produced by these social contradictions and transform it into a force for social change.

Start from Anti-corruption

No matter how dissatisfied they are, most people still want to go through the social transition in a peaceful way. The key to a peaceful transition is positive interaction between the people and the government.

To achieve this goal we need an entry point that can unite all parties. So what will this entry point be? I don't think there is a set answer. We have to go with the wind. At the moment fighting against corruption seems a practical choice.

Anti-corruption in China needs to be addressed in two stages: anti-corruption as a movement and anti-corruption as an institution.

Without the movement to provide the breakthrough, institutional change can never occur.

This is an abridged translation of the original article and major sections have been omitted.
        
Links and Sources
Economic Observer Online: Rebuilding Trust in Government
Economic Observer Online: China\'s Challenge: Social Disorder