By Chen Yongjie (陈永杰), Deputy Secretary-General of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges
Issue 613, Apr 1, 2013
Nation, page 16
Translated by Laura Lin
Original article: [Chinese]

Recently the haze that lies over much of China's eastern region, including the capital, has been fodder for the newspapers, both here and abroad. And there is no doubt that the impact of the pollution on the economy, society, and public health is immense.

But it is worth asking whether the smog we live under is a necessity for China's development?

The first concern relates to resource depletion. China's massive development requires the support of enormous natural resources - and not just domestic resources but also those imported from around the world. According to recent figures, the speed, scale and impact of China's mineral extraction over the past generation is unprecedented in human history.

In 1978, China's total energy consumption was 571 million tons of standard coal, whereas by 2012, this had increased 5.3 times to 3.62 billion tons. In 2010, China accounted for 10 percent of the world's total economic output and consumed about 20 percent of the world's energy: 60 percent of cement, 47 percent of iron ore, 49 percent of steel, 44 percent of lead, 40 percent of aluminum and 38 percent of the copper.

Currently, China's energy consumption per unit GDP is 2.5 times the world's average, 2.9 times America's and 4.5 times that of Japan. China's water consumption per unit of GDP is three times the global average.

Another concern is sewage disposal. In 2011, China's volume of wastewater discharge was 65.92 billion tons, which means more than 48 tons per capita, again, the global leader.

In 2010, China's total emissions of both sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides were over 22 million tons, ranking first in the world. Its industrial smoke and dust emissions were 14.46 million tons. This is far beyond the environment's carrying capacity. About 64 percent of Chinese cities' groundwater is heavily polluted, and only 3 percent of urban groundwater is clean.

From 2000 to 2010, the world's carbon dioxide emissions had an average annual growth rate of 2.63 percent. China's average annual growth rate is 8.58 percent and the country now accounts for 25 percent of the world's total emissions.

Over the past 30 years, China has maintained an average GDP growth rate of 10 percent. Does it really want to maintain a growth rate of 8 percent -- as the government aims to do -- through 2020?

What will be the consequences of maintaining this level of growth?

To put this in another perspective, if China's GDP does grow by about 8 percent a year until 2020, China's per capita GDP will reach $11,000, which would be double its 2010 rate.

According to the efficiency of energy production and consumption over the first decade of this century, by 2020 China could consume as much as 5.57 billion tons of standard coal, which would be an increase of more than 70 percent compared over the 3.25 billion tons consumed in 2010. This could account for more than 30 percent of the world's energy consumption.

Does China itself, and the rest of the world, even hold such a huge supply of resources?

Even if the answer is yes, what about the rise in prices caused by a shrinking supply of resources?

Besides, based on China's current energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions ratio, by 2020, its carbon dioxide emissions are likely to exceed 12 billion tons which will account for about 40 percent of the world's total. Will China, or the world, be capable of absorbing such emissions?

In light of both these numbers and very basic questions, we know China has to change direction - and start to slow down. It has been more than 20 years since China first advocated a transformation of its development mode, the country has also been talking about scientific development for more than ten years.

However, looking back, we know these ideas have remained as little more than slogans. Real policies to make them happen are viewed as a luxury the country's growth model cannot afford. Too often, the laws that are passed tend to cancel each other out.

There is a chance that China's new leaders may start to take environmental problems seriously, having even set the construction of an ecological civilization as one of its five national priorities. However in the face of the severe haze we see every day, China has to dig even deeper.

We must change the original path of development, not in slogans but in real action.

The most fundamental method to achieve this is by slowing down the pace of China's development path so as to damp down the "high fever" of a fast-growing Chinese economy.

Indeed, it is the "economic fever" that is the main source of China's development syndrome.

China has to effectively reduce the pace of its development, aiming to keep its overall economic growth below 7 percent between now and 2014; and during its "13th Five-Year Plan" (2015-2020), growth should be kept under 6 percent.

It's only by reducing the speed of China's economic growth that we can reduce excessive resource extraction and curb high pollution emissions. Only by reducing the over-consumption of resources and the amount of pollution can China protect and save itself, and the world as well.

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