From Corporation, page 25, issue no.398, December 15, 2008
Translated by Liu Peng
Original article: [Chinese]

China's Yunnan province's latest scheme to build reserves of non-ferrous metal and fertilizer in aid of struggling producers affected by sinking prices has drawn skepticism over its effectiveness and risks involved.

The scheme announced last week aimed to help local companies that faced difficulties in selling their products to put them aside as reserves. The scheme plan to store up to one million tons of non-ferrous metal and 500,000 tons of fertilizer.

The reserves would be financed by bank loans secured by companies using their products as mortgage, thus allowing the cash strapped companies to gain access to liquidlity. Meanwhile the provincial government would subsidize the loan interest and storage cost.

Critics however cautioned that the move could spread risks to the banks, as prices of metal and fertilizer might drop further during the planned 13-month reserve period; if that happened, companies' repayment capacities might be affected and banks might record increased default loans.

Harsh Winter
Yunnan is China's largest base of metal production, which is also the economic pillar of the province. The non-ferrous metal industry contributed 5% to Yunnan's gross domestic products, and its output last year reached 2.33 million tones.

For the past months, however, prices of various non-ferrous metals had declined dramatically, with some tumbling by more than half.

"Prices for some metal products are lower than that for the raw materials," exclaimed Yang Yuhe, vice president of Yunnan Copper and president of Yunnan Mining Association, he added: "This is a winter that will last long."

For instance, since July, prices for tin, copper and aluminum per ton respectively nosedived to RMB90,000,
RMB30,000 and RMB14,000 from an early high of RMB150,000, RMB80,000 and RMB30,000.

Production became unprofitable with the falling prices, leading to smelting plants cutting or halting output.

Yunnan Copper for instance, owing to the price for electrolytic copper tumbled to RMB27,000 from RMB 60,000 in October, it had shut down a smelting plant in Chuxiong, a city in the central Yunnan province.

According to its third quarter report, the net profits of Yunnan Copper Company, the Group's domestically listed company, decreased 88.95% to 580 million compared with the same period last year.

From November, the Group began cutting salaries of staff to counter the hard times ahead. The monthly incentive payment for high-ranking managers, mid-and-low-level employees respectively cut by 50%, 30% and 10%.

Similarily, Yunnan Tin Company, a subsidiary of China's largest tin producer Yunnan Tin Group, saw its third quarter net profits hit a year-on-year decline of 32.07% to RMB 135 million. "We will reduce output by 30% in the last quarter," said Yang Yimin, board secretary of the Company.

As for the fertilizer sector, sources told the EO that Yuntianhua Group had reduced 60% of its phosphate fertilizer production. The group also had overstocked 700,000 tons of sulfur, which price plummeted to around RMB500 yuan now after hitting its 22-month high of RMB5,800 per ton in August.

Relief Plan
On December 8, Yunnan's economic committee announced a relief plan by building up reserves for non-ferrous metals and fertilizer; not only that companies could exchange stocks for loans, they could also hope for prices to go up later before releasing the stocks in the market.

The scheme planned to store 500,000 tons of fertilizer and a million tons of non-ferrous metal, including 150,000 tones for copper, 300,000 tones for aluminum, 150,000 tones for lead and 300,000 tons for zinc, and 100,000 tones for tin for 13 months.

A source said capital needed for the scheme might reach some RMB25 billion. The reserves would be bought at market prices.

Shang Wei, director of the Committee's economic operation division, said to participate in the scheme, companies must meet certain requirement in terms of total assets, asset-liabilitie ratio, production capacity, warehouse capacity and other aspects.

Shang said the provincial government had done sufficient research before launching the plan, and that companies had the choice to participate or stay out of the scheme.

Some industry analysts, however, expressed skepticism about the scheme.

"The plan can only delay the collapse of the companies and prolong their poor performance as it only locks up their stocks temporarily," said Lin Yuhui, an analyst of China International Futures Company.

He believed the scheme was risky. What if prices of the non-ferrous prices continued to decline during the planned reserve period? That could bring about loan repayment problem, as the reserves devaluated and affected companies' ability to repay banks.

Smelting companies too expressed concern, one industry player claimed the output of  lead and zinc in Yunnan totaled at least one million tons, yet the reserve qouta set were 150,000 tons and 300,000 tons respectively.

The industry player doubted the scheme's effectiveness, saying each smelter would fight over the quota and receive only a fraction in the end.

The EO learned that other provinces remained hesitant in following Yunnan's footstep.