Highlights from the EO print edition, No. 607, Feb 18, 2013

Inflation Projections for 2013
News, cover
~ According to a survey of 100 economists conducted by the Economic Observer, 90 percent believe that inflation will remain at a moderate level in 2013 and won’t exceed 4 percent.
~ However, Stephen Green, head of China Research at Standard Chartered Bank, was an exception. In a recent report by Standard Chartered he warned that, starting from the fourth quarter of 2013 through the first half of 2014, inflation “will become serious.”
~ The report predicts that the average annual increase in CPI in 2013 will reach 4 percent (which is higher than the market prediction of 3.1 percent), and will break past 5 percent at the end of the year.
~ David Daokui Li (李稻葵), director of the Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE) at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management, has a similar view to Standard Chartered Bank in his prediction that the average annual inflation rate could be about 4 percent and reach 5 percent or even higher in the second half of the year.
~ Pork prices are one key marker of the inflation level. Li Wei (李炜), a macroeconomic analyst with Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that pork prices will increase by 5 percent in 2013.
~ Li Guoxiang (李国祥), a researcher at Rural Development Institute Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, estimates that the increase in domestic grain prices will be around 10 percent - five percentage points higher than in 2012.
~ Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that prudent monetary policy is likely to revert to a tight monetary policy starting from the fourth quarter of 2013. However, most analysts who held an optimistic view on inflation don’t believe there will be a change in monetary policy.
Original article: [Chinese]

Policy Makers on the Outlook for 2013
News Section
~ Every year the Economic Observer puts together a special feature consisting of short, snappy briefs of how the various ministers in charge of China's central government departments view their main tasks for the coming year.
~ Divided by central government ministries, we look at the key phrases and core focus of the various departments over the course of the coming year
Original article: [Chinese]

An Investor's Guide to 2013
Market, page 17-24
~ As policy makers and investors around the world attempt to forecast the outlook for global financial and economic stability, this week's market section includes a special feature based on surveys of some of China's most respected economists, analysts and fund managers. We ask these experts for their view on what is likely to happen in 2013 with regards to everything from the macroeconomic conditions through to detailed analysis of the A-share market and the outlook for various industries.
~ Those surveyed included 28 chief economists at financial institutions, investment managers at 100 investment institutions, executives at 23 trust companies and core members of 36 private equity firms.
~ The survey found that over 60 percent of chief economists at financial institutions are optimistic about the outlook for the Chinese economy in 2013, with most of them forecasting a moderate recovery.
~ As for the share market, 77 percent of financial institutions surveyed considered stocks to be the best investment option over the coming year.
Original article: [Chinese]

Business Leaders on the Outlook for 2013
Corporation, page 25-32
~ The EO surveyed 40 CEOs, managers and chairpersons of some of China's biggest companies on their outlook for the economy in 2013.
~ According to the results of the survey, 61 percent of the business people surveyed expected GDP growth in the year of the Snake to outpace last year's growth, another 30 percent said growth would be about the same as it was in 2012.
~ Business leaders also contributed a short article on how they view the future of their industry in 2013.
~ Contributors included the heads of large Chinese companies like Sanyi, Baogang Steel, Gree and Tencent along with those who represent international brands like Walmart, GE, Siemens, Microsoft and IBM in China.
~ One result of the survey of company leaders showed that 61 percent of companies thought that their performance would improve somewhat in 2013, 26 percent reported that their circumstance would remain basically stable, another 13 percent of responded that they would experience a "large positive shift" in 2013.
Original article: [Chinese]

China's Auto Industry in the Year of the Snake
Automobile, page 33-35
~ Editors from the EO's auto section look at some of the new technology and trends that are likely to emerge in the Chinese auto industry in the coming year.
~ The feature predicts that cars that can connect to the internet, foreign brand ambassadors and lighter cars are all likely to appear in 2013. The authors argue that more people are likely to be buying cars and related services online and with the help of subsidies and other preferential policies, the sales of hybrids is likely to grow this year.
~ Changes to the rules that govern what kind of cars that the public service can buy might see a new rule that will boost the fortunes of domestic car manufacturers.
Original article: [Chinese]

Real Estate in the Year of the Snake
Property, page 37-40
~ In our special feature on the outlook for the property sector in 2013, editors from the EO's Property section talk to executives from some of China's largest property developers.
~ Zhang Yuliang (张玉良), Chairman of Greenland Group, said the company will invest 150 billion yuan in real estate this year, half of which will be used for purchasing land.
~ Hu Zaixin (胡在新), deputy general manager of Poly Real Estate, says that we can't be blindly optimistic about market, and he also thinks regulation and control on real estate won't be relaxed in 2013.
~ Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank, thinks housing prices will continue to increase in 2013.
Original article: [Chinese]