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U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, U.S. Congress, November 2011



China Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011

Even under an adverse external scenario, currency appreciation—in both nominal and real effective terms—should continue as a means to support domestic demand and the broader rebalancing effort.

World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011

In China, growth will average 9% to 9.5% during 2011–12, less than the average of 10.5% during 2000–07, as ongoing policy tightening and a smaller contribution from net external demand moderate activity. Investment growth has decelerated…but it remains the principal contributor to growth.

Mainland China Banking Survey 2011, KPMG, September 2011

World’s largest banks by dollar market capitalization (as of 31 August 2011): Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, HSBC Holdings PLC, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Agricultural Bank of China

The Renminbi: The Political Economy of a Currency, Brookings Institution, September 2011

United States policy should de-emphasize the exchange rate, where the potential for success is limited, and instead focus on keeping the pressure on China to maintain and expand market access for American firms in the domestic Chinese market.

China’s Great Rebalancing Act, Eurasia Group, August 2011

China’s economic landscape will not change as fundamentally as the twelfth five-year-plan’s designers (and many foreigners) hope. And that, in turn, means that China in 2015 will be more brittle and beset by social difficulties.

Chinese Macroeconomic Management Through the Crisis and Beyond,Australia, July 2011

Empirical evidence suggests that [China’s] stimulus [package] added around 2‐3 per cent to the level of GDP in both 2009 and 2010.


China - Agricultural Policy and Monitoring 2011, OECD, September 2011:

China has been increasing its support to agriculture. While the share of the most distorting forms of support remains high, an increase in the importance of flat rate payments per unit of land is a positive phenomenon. The level of support strongly fluctuates as domestic prices for selected commodities remain subject to government interventions such as export restrictions and minimum prices.


Statistical Review of World Energy, BP, June 2011

China’s share of global  energy  consumption; the world’s largest 20.3%.


The Rise of China and the Resilience of US Pre-eminenceLowy Institute, Sept 2011

Beijing’s capacity to translate its economic footprint into political and diplomatic leverage remains highly inefficient, and as a result it tends to seek to get its way through pure muscle and size – alienating regional opinion in the process [...] It could be that managing Beijing’s ensuing sense of national frustration and strategic isolation could be a more dangerous challenge into the future.

China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment Rand Corporation,  August 2011


While our estimates for the Indian and Chinese growth rates are surprisingly close to one another, the absolute size of the GDP gap in China’s favor would increase by 2025…Using the mean growth rates …results in GDP estimates of $6.5 trillion for China and of $2.1 trillion for India in 2025, in constant 2000 prices at market exchange rates.


China\'s 12th Five-Year Plan: Iron and Steel, KPMG, May 2011

International Relations

Chinese Leadership Monitor No. 35, Hoover Institution, September 2011

... growing Chinese assertiveness over maritime sovereignty issues is arguably one of the most important potential causes of serious confrontation or even conflict between the U.S., allied powers, and China over the coming years.


growing Chinese assertiveness over maritime 
sovereignty issues is arguably one of the most important potential causes of serious 
confrontation or even conflict between the U.S., allied powers, and China over the 
coming years.Should the United States Abandon Taiwan, The Washington Quarterly, September 2011

The New Great Game in Central Asia, European Council on Foreign Relations, September 2011

In short, Chinese policy in Central Asia is a mixture of “win-win” rhetoric on trade, sizeable handouts, close attention to power politics and a refusal to choose between Russia and the US – which they even see converging together against the Kyrgyz regime recently. The Chinese analysts do not exclude the possibility of military action, short of war.


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