Can We Still be Zhengyou?

Chinese translation available here

It was a surprise for most people around the world to wake up and find that the Australian parliamentary Labor Party had decided to switch leaders and as a result, as of 12.30pm on Thursday, when the new leader Julia Gillard was sworn in, Australia had a new Prime Minister.

In fact it was a surprise for many Australians too.

At 10.30pm on the evening before, Rudd announced to the media that his deputy Julia Gillard had asked for him to either resign or hold a leadership ballot in the party room caucus the following day to determine the leadership of the Labor Party and hence the Prime Ministership of Australia.

Although recent opinion polls had been indicating that both Rudd's approval rating as Prime Minister and support to the federal Labor Party as a whole had been dropping in recent months, few commentators saw the likelihood of a leadership change so soon before an expected election.

Furthermore, even in the unlikely event that his deputy did make a move to contest the leadership, on the basis of previous leadership battles within the Australian Labor Party (ALP), few predicted that Gillard would be able to force Rudd out so quickly and easily.

In the end, Rudd, apparently informed by his backers that he "didn't have the numbers," decided not to contest the vote and simply resigned as leader of the ALP and his deputy was subsequently elected unopposed.

The Treasurer Wayne Swan will serve as Deputy and will also replace Rudd as the head of Australia's mission to the G20 conference in Canada this coming weekend.

What Will be the Effect of the Leadership Change for Australia's Relationship with China

Rather than discuss why Rudd's popularity at home was sinking, let's look instead at what this sudden and unexpected turn of events means for relations between Australia and China - the answer is not much.

Although you may have seen Lu Kewen (陆克文) wishing Chinese viewers a Happy Chinese New Year on the TV over Spring Festival, or you might have heard him joking in Chinese about his Chinese-language skills -“天不怕，地不怕， 只怕外国人说中国话" (roughly: Be not afraid of heaven, be not afraid of the earth, just fear foreigners who can speak Chinese) at a speech he gave at Peking University in April 2008 (full text here and Chinese version here) - a joke he recycled this past week when welcoming Chinese Vice-president Xi Jinping to Australia - having an Australian leader who speaks fluent Chinese and who wrote his PhD thesis on the court case of democracy advocate Wei Jingsheng, does not seem to have had such a large impact on the fundamental relationship between the two countries.

I'd argue that although Rudd has handled Chinese-Australian relationship quite well over the two and a half years he served in Australia's top political post: his ability to engage with Chinese people directly using Chinese did create a positive image of Australians being open and engaged with Asia, his push to define Australia's relationship with China as that of a zhengyou (诤友), first revealed in a speech to Beida but expanded more recently in a speech at the Australian National University (full text here and Chinese text here), helped many to imagine a deeper and broader relationship between the two countries, and also his cool handling of the pressures surrounding the trial of Stern Hu, when, despite relations between the two countries going through a bad patch, Rudd appeared to comprehend the importance of not allowing the diplomatic spat to get out of hand.

However, despite these positives, the replacement of this Chinese-speaking PM with a deputy who seems to share many of his convictions on domestic matters, is unlikely to effect the relationship between the two countries.

This has a lot to do with the fact that of the ties that bind Australia and China - those of trade are strongest.

The Australian economy has profited enormously from a resources boom fueled largely by China's demand for iron ore, coal, natural gas and other commodities that Australia has to sell.

Similarly, China appreciates the stability of supply that Australia can provide for these strategic commodities that are essential to the continued growth of China's economy and that are needed to build the high-speed rail network, the roads and the new cities that will house the country's rapidly urbanizing population.

Despite Rudd's efforts to deepen the relationship, to increase the cultural and social connections between the two countries - including the recent announcement of the plan to establish an Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University - trade still remains at the core of the Australian-Chinese relationship.

You only have to take a look at the recent agreements signed during Xi Jinping's trip to Australia to understand how the relationship between the two countries is firmly planted in this economic complementarity.

China-Australian Relations Under Rudd

Aside from the positive features of having Rudd as Prime Minister mentioned above, there have also been a few drawbacks.

Some have argued that Rudd's familiarity with China and his strong foreign policy background, led him to interfere in foreign policy affairs that were best left to the professionals employed by the Department of Foreign Affairs.

Similarly, because of Rudd's perceived "special relationship" with the Chinese, he was often put under pressure to step in and "call his friends in Beijing" if any problems arose.

Although it doesn't seem to have aroused much in the way of coverage in China's non-specialized media, Australian analysts have also noted that the release of a new Australian defense white paper in May 2009 may also have had a negative impact on Sino-Australian relations. These commentators argue that the Rudd government should have done a better job of presenting some of the more sensitive issues covered in the white paper - Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030 - to the Chinese.

Finally, the recent leaking of the news that Rudd referred to the Chinese delegates at the Copenhagen Climate Change conference last year as "rat-fuckers" in an off-the record briefing with journalists, is another example of how having a Chinese-speaking Prime Minister does not necessarily equate to warmer Sino-Australian relations.

What About Gillard?

No-one is really sure what Gillard thinks about China or even about foreign policy more generally.

The issues that dominated her first press conference as leader of the parliamentary Labor Party were all domestic. Discussion of international affairs were limited to Australia's troop commitment to Afghanistan and confirmation of who would attend the G20 meeting in Canada in place of Rudd.

Similarly, in Rudd's emotional last press conference as PM, in which he outlined the achievements of his government, the list was devoted almost entirely to domestic improvements in health, education, social welfare, environmental policy and indigenous affairs - with the only mention of global issues being the ratifying of the Kyoto Protocol and successful diplomatic mission to ensure Australia a seat on the G20.

The new PM's lack of foreign policy experience should mean that she will continue to rely, as governments should, on the advice and analysis of the professionals employed by the country's diplomatic service and the Department of Foreign Affairs.

What will be important is how Gillard handles any sudden or unexpected crises that occur. When the next equivalent of the "Stern Hu" affair blows up and media and political discourse is raised to a high pitch, will Gillard be able to keep her cool?

Similarly, how Gillard will be able to navigate the concerns of a segment of Australia's population in regard to increasing Chinese investment in the country will also be a crucial issue to watch.

As Chinalco's failed attempt to secure a larger stake in Rio Tinto showed, the issue of government-owned or backed Chinese companies purchasing Australian resources is politically charged and sensitive.

Recently, there have also been a few media reports on the first home buyers being priced out of the market by Chinese property investors and of Australian farms being purchased by Chinese investors.

Handling this issue in a mature and nuanced fashion will be an important challenge for Gillard.

Finally, it's not certain that Rudd is out of the picture. At his final press conference yesterday, Rudd committed himself to re-contesting the next election and also made himself available to work for the new Gillard-led government in "any manner I can be of assistance."

Given Rudd's background in Foreign Affairs, there is a chance that Rudd could be asked to take on the role of Minister for Foreign Affairs which means that he may well be able to have an even greater impact on the future of Sino-Australian relations.